Unveiling Sri Lanka’s political, social, geopolitical, and economic realities through the unique lens of ‘Teardrop Diplomacy.’

Preface:

Teardrop Diplomacy: Navigating Sri Lanka’s Complex Geopolitical Landscape

Asanga Abeyagoonasekera’s seminal work, “Teardrop Diplomacy: China’s Sri Lanka Foray,” comes at a pivotal moment in Sri Lanka’s history. This compelling book unfolds against the backdrop of the rise of the Rajapaksa regime in 2019, the intricate dance of the US-India-China triangulation, Sri Lanka’s political trajectory from democracy to autocracy, and the pervasive militarization gripping the nation. Abeyagoonasekera, one of Sri Lanka’s foremost international relations experts, delves deep into the geopolitical complexities defining this island nation.

Abeyagoonasekera navigates the labyrinth of Sri Lanka’s recent political landscape, skillfully dissecting the rise of the Rajapaksa regime in 2019. The book meticulously unpacks the events leading to this political shift, offering readers a nuanced understanding of the internal dynamics propelling this transformation. Abeyagoonasekera’s analysis serves as a vital compass, guiding readers through the intricacies of Sri Lanka’s contemporary political metamorphosis.

Against the canvas of the Indian Ocean, where Sri Lanka occupies a strategic position, the author confronts the complex dynamics of the US-India-China triangulation. Abeyagoonasekera masterfully deciphers the jostle for influence among global powers and outlines the challenges and opportunities this geopolitical dance presents for Sri Lanka. His insightful exploration underscores the delicate balance Sri Lanka must maintain to safeguard its national interests amid the power play of major players.

Abeyagoonasekera’s narrative takes a poignant turn as he examines Sri Lanka’s journey from democracy to autocracy. Through meticulous research and a keen understanding of political dynamics, he unveils the subtle shifts and overt changes that have reshaped the nation’s political landscape. This section of the book serves as a sobering reflection on the fragility of democratic institutions and the challenges posed by the erosion of democratic norms.

The book’s exploration culminates in an examination of the militarization gripping Sri Lanka. Abeyagoonasekera confronts the multifaceted aspects of this phenomenon, addressing its roots, manifestations, and the impact on civic life. His incisive analysis sheds light on the interconnectedness of militarization with economic and political crises, providing readers with a comprehensive understanding of this pervasive force.

The rise and fall of Sri Lanka’s powerful Rajapaksa dynasty

The rise and fall of Sri Lanka’s powerful Rajapaksa dynasty saw President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fleeing Sri Lanka, hours before he was expected to resign amidst a crippling economic and political crisis that had gripped the island nation over the past few months.

His fall from grace and departure to the Maldives marked a significant downturn for a family that had dominated political life in Sri Lanka for almost 20 years. Their grip on power began in 2004 when Mahinda Rajapaksa, the elder brother of Gotabaya, was appointed prime minister.

Mahinda, known for his populist touch and success in ending the nearly three-decades-long civil war in 2009, was elected president in 2005. Gotabaya, at that time a powerful official and military strategist, played a key role in the military’s victory over the Tamil rebels.

Mahinda’s presidency continued until 2015 when he unexpectedly lost to the opposition. However, the family made a comeback after the Easter Sunday terror attacks in 2019. Gotabaya, pledging to restore security and revive the family’s nationalist agenda, won the presidential election in November 2019.

Upon assuming the presidency, Gotabaya appointed Mahinda as prime minister and strategically placed other family members in key positions. The dynasty’s Sinhala majoritarian rhetoric, portraying themselves as defenders of the nation, was crucial to their success.

Despite their initial popularity, the Rajapaksas’ dominance resulted in unwise and populist decisions, such as massive tax cuts and a ban on chemical fertilizers, leading to economic challenges and food shortages. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated economic woes, prompting the government to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) belatedly.

The mismanagement of the economy, coupled with corruption and nepotism, created a debilitating economic and political crisis. The public’s resentment culminated in a massive uprising, forcing Gotabaya to flee Sri Lanka. The family’s misuse of power and corruption were cited as key factors contributing to the country’s suffering.

The Economics of the China-India-Sri Lanka Triangle played a crucial role in Sri Lanka’s attempt to navigate the delicate balance between the two Asian giants.

Sri Lanka’s association with China became a focal point of domestic and international political discourse over the past decade, with economic ties being a central theme. The strengthening economic bond between the island nation and China played a pivotal role in rescuing Sri Lanka’s struggling economy in the preceding three years. However, India, Sri Lanka’s immediate neighbor, and the United States closely observed this evolving relationship between China and Sri Lanka.

China emerged as a significant economically for Sri Lanka, offering indispensable assistance that proved pivotal in revitalizing the country’s economy. Concurrently, Sri Lanka was mindful not to alienate India, its longstanding neighbor, with whom it shared deep-rooted ties. The dynamic between Sri Lanka and India differed significantly from the economic relations it fostered with China.

Sri Lanka’s historical relationship with India transcended mere economic dealings and extended into the post-colonial era, where India wielded substantial influence in the island nation’s domestic politics. India played a crucial role in implementing the 13th Amendment to Sri Lanka’s constitution, addressing the country’s ethnic conflict. The Tamil minority’s concerns, particularly those residing in Sri Lanka, featured prominently in Indian political discussions, particularly in Tamil Nadu. In 1987, India dispatched its army to combat the domestic terrorist group LTTE, seeking a separate Tamil state. Although deemed a failure, this intervention influenced the political landscape. The conflict eventually concluded in 2009, yet issues regarding power devolution to the Tamil minority lingered. India consistently urged Sri Lanka to fully implement the 13th Amendment, a sentiment reiterated by India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar in early 2021.

In contrast, China’s relationship with Sri Lanka, while a recent phenomenon, centered largely on economic and financial ties due to China’s geographical distance from the island. Noteworthy is the fact that China’s involvement in Sri Lanka’s domestic affairs remained minimal until recent years when military and political relations gained traction.

2.1 The Rise of Economic Relations with China

Sri Lanka, upon attaining middle-income status, grappled with recurrent Balance of Payment (BOP) crises, exposing the need for solutions to escape economic turmoil. Consequently, the nation deepened its economic ties with China, relying on the latter in its development process.

While discussions on the growing China-Sri Lanka relationship often fixate on the surge in Chinese loans, labeling it as Sri Lanka falling into a Chinese debt trap, the burgeoning economic ties encompass three main avenues: debt, investment, and trade. Restricting the focus to Chinese loans oversimplifies the multifaceted nature of the relationship.

In terms of public debt, China emerged as the second-largest foreign lender for Sri Lanka over the last decade and a half. Notably, large infrastructure projects, including the Colombo-Katunayake expressway, Hambantota port, and Mattala Airport, received funding from Chinese loans. Despite discussions about debt-trap diplomacy, China’s ownership of slightly over 10 percent of Sri Lanka’s foreign debt stock by the end of 2019 reveals a nuanced situation.

Chinese loans extended beyond infrastructure projects to encompass budgetary and BOP support, as highlighted by a 10 billion renminbi (RMB) currency swap facility secured by Sri Lanka in early 2021. This shift in Sri Lanka’s relationship with Chinese loans signifies an increasing reliance on China to address external sector vulnerabilities.

Chinese investments played a vital role in Sri Lanka’s economic development over the past decade. China emerged as the largest foreign investor in Sri Lanka during the period of 2010-2020, spearheading significant projects like the Colombo Port City and the investment in Hambantota Port. These investments, while contributing to economic growth, sparked controversies, particularly regarding sovereignty concerns related to the Colombo Port City.

In the realm of trade, China supplanted India as Sri Lanka’s top import partner in the last two years. Even amidst import restrictions imposed by the Sri Lankan government in 2020, Chinese imports demonstrated resilience compared to those from India. The shift was attributed to China’s role as a major supplier of raw materials, particularly for Sri Lanka’s textile industry, a sector that constitutes a substantial portion of Sri Lankan exports.

2.2 India’s Economic Role in Sri Lanka

India’s economic relationship with Sri Lanka unfolded through the same three avenues: debt, investment, and trade, each with distinct characteristics.

Unlike China, India’s lending capacity to Sri Lanka was limited, relying on trade deficit-based lending support through export credits. India’s refusal to extend the term of its currency swap agreement with Sri Lanka earlier this year, coupled with its insistence on Sri Lanka entering an IMF program, underscored India’s reservations about the economic climate in Sri Lanka.

India’s investments in Sri Lanka were relatively modest compared to China, with the Lanka Indian Oil Company being a notable strategic investment. While India maintained a trade deficit with Sri Lanka, the Indo-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ISFTA) marked a significant economic tie, with India historically being Sri Lanka’s largest source of imports.

2.3 Balance of Power

Sri Lanka’s current economic landscape is characterized by external sector challenges, exacerbated by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism earnings—an essential source of foreign currency. The nation’s struggle to meet foreign debt repayments, coupled with persistent foreign exchange issues, has heightened the need for external support.

In facing external sector vulnerabilities, Sri Lanka has heavily leaned on China, while economic relations with India have stagnated. However, the delicate diplomatic balance becomes evident as Sri Lanka endeavors to avoid irking India while seeking to avert a potential economic crisis. The nation’s vulnerability underscores the imperative of external support, whether from China, India, the United States, or international organizations such as the IMF or World Bank.

In conclusion, Sri Lanka’s economic trajectory is intricately tied to its diplomatic maneuvering between China and India, with the nation navigating the complexities to secure its economic stability. The evolving dynamics and shifting allegiances in this tripartite relationship present a challenging landscape for Sri Lanka, with the resolution of external sector vulnerabilities hinging on the support of external partners.

Challenges of Autocratic Leadership and the Path to Democratic Renewal: A Sri Lankan Perspective

3.1 Introduction:

In examining the dynamics of leadership in Sri Lanka, the contrast between autocratic and democratic approaches becomes evident. Autocratic leaders, who make decisions unilaterally, bear the responsibility not only for making all decisions but also for ensuring their correctness. This stands in stark contrast to democratic leadership, which fosters consultation and inclusivity in decision-making processes. The recent constitutional amendments in Sri Lanka exemplify the challenges posed by autocratic tendencies and underscore the need for a renewed commitment to democratic values.

3.2 The Rise of Autocracy in Sri Lanka:

Despite widespread opposition, the enactment of the 20th Amendment to the Constitution was perceived as inevitable in Sri Lanka. While it may not grant absolute power to the executive presidency, concerns linger about its potential impact on fundamental rights and societal tensions. The historical trend of autocratic leadership, originating from the 1978 Constitution, has led to periodic chaos and destruction. The imperative for a shift towards a responsible, accountable, and mutually beneficial governance system is paramount.

3.3 Autocracy and Personality Traits:

Examining historical examples such as Hitler, Mussolini, Amin, and Pol Pot reveals common traits among autocratic leaders, including a tendency to make unilateral decisions, a focus on task accomplishment, maintaining social distance, and relying on threats and punishment. Societal responses to uncertainty play a crucial role in either supporting or opposing autocratic leaders. The April 2019 Easter Bombings and the subsequent regime change in 2020 highlight the influence of uncertainty on the preference for strong and directive leadership.

3.4 Economic Challenges and Corruption:

Sri Lanka faces economic challenges marked by a dwindling revenue base, unsustainable debt levels, and foreign exchange constraints. The government’s response, resorting to loans without a comprehensive economic strategy, raises concerns about the transfer of sovereignty. Corruption, entwined with political power, poses a significant obstacle to progress. The prevalence of corruption, even in established democracies, underscores the need for transparent and accountable governance.

3.5 Amended Constitution:

The ongoing process of drafting a new constitution raises questions about its participatory and democratic nature. The lack of public discussion and limited participation in crucial issues jeopardizes the effectiveness of the constitutional-making process. Without comprehensive engagement from stakeholders, including the government, opposition, and civil society, the new constitution risks becoming disconnected from the diverse needs of the citizenry.

3.6 Conclusion:

Sri Lanka stands at a crossroads, grappling with challenges such as autocratic tendencies, economic instability, and corruption. The journey towards democratic renewal demands a steadfast commitment to inclusivity, the rule of law, and addressing the root causes of societal tensions. A constitution crafted through genuine consultation and broad participation, reflecting national values of equity, inclusiveness, and respect for human rights, is indispensable for forging a prosperous and harmonious future. History, both global and local, teaches us the imperative of selecting a path that safeguards the sovereignty of the people and prevents the encroachment of autocracy.

Sri Lanka’s Deepening Crisis: Militarization’s Grip on Economy, Land, and Society

4.1 Economic Stranglehold:

In the throes of a multifaceted crisis, Sri Lanka grapples with economic instability, social unrest, and political turmoil. As the nation’s economic foundation quivers, a critical spotlight reveals a stark reality: the increasing role of the armed forces exacerbates the crisis. Recent incidents, such as firing upon fuel queues in Mullaitivu and brutal crackdowns on peaceful demonstrations, underscore the security forces’ dominance in politics, further destabilizing the nation.

4.2 Historical Roots:

This militarization is no isolated event but a continuation of a troubling trend. Over the years, the armed forces have been wielded as a tool to suppress opposition, often resorting to extreme violence. The scars of the JVP uprising and the brutal conflict with Tamil separatists resonate, marked by mass atrocities and disappearances. Even in periods of relative calm, the military’s influence remains disproportionately high, particularly in Tamil and Muslim-majority regions, where reports of harassment, surveillance, and violence against civilians persist.

4.3 Economic Crisis and Military Spending:

A critical examination of Sri Lanka’s economic downturn points to a significant factor: exorbitant military spending. Despite facing an ‘unsustainable’ debt crisis, the government allocates a staggering 15% of state expenditure to defense, well above the South Asian average. The military, predominantly Sinhalese, not only burdens the state financially but also hinders civilian participation in the economy, controlling businesses across diverse sectors and distorting regional economies.

4.4 Land Seizures and Ethnic Tensions:

The military’s expansive control extends to land, particularly in the Northern and Eastern provinces. Seizing land under various pretexts, including the preservation of heritage, the armed forces disrupt traditional activities, displace families, and escalate ethnic and religious tensions. Collaborating with agencies like the Mahaweli Development Authority, the military aids in land seizures, resulting in the displacement of local communities and altering the ethnic landscape.

4.5 Foreign Complicity:

International pressure becomes imperative, yet many nations, including Australia, India, Japan, the UK, and the USA, engage with Sri Lanka’s military, inadvertently legitimizing its actions. Even as international funding flows to agencies like the Mahaweli Development Authority, it perpetuates problematic activities. The close ties between the Sri Lankan military and its foreign counterparts shield it from accountability, necessitating a reevaluation of foreign engagements to promote human rights, economic development, and peace.

4.6 Creating a Permanent State of Emergency:

Militarization finds its roots in the securitization of certain groups, fostering a state of perpetual emergency. The extended use of emergency powers, notably Section 12, enables the military’s involvement in non-traditional roles, creating an informal, shadow state that operates alongside official institutions. This normalization of exception, marked by the centralization of power in the executive, erodes democratic principles, sustaining militarization beyond crises.

4.7 Changing Military Role:

The military’s role, once confined to defense, undergoes a transformation, extending into civilian activities and nation-building efforts. Normalized through formal, informal, and symbolic means, the military’s expanding role, exemplified by its involvement in agriculture and education, raises concerns about democratic oversight. Philanthropic initiatives and professional rhetoric further solidify public approval, blurring the lines between military and civilian domains.

4.8 Impact on Civic Activism:

The securitization and militarization processes exert a chilling effect on civic activism, particularly in conflict-affected regions. The creation of a ‘shadow state,’ parallel to official institutions, undermines democratic principles and stifles dissent. Overt and covert surveillance mechanisms, coupled with the enforcement of health regulations under the guise of crisis response, continue to hinder civic engagement, creating an atmosphere of fear reminiscent of past oppressive regimes.

4.9 Call for International Action:

As Sri Lanka grapples with the entrenchment of militarization, international actors must prioritize demanding accountability and demilitarization through avenues like the UN Human Rights Council. Governments and multilateral institutions should divest from heavily militarized entities and redirect funds toward transparent, humanitarian initiatives. A collective effort is needed to pressure the Sri Lankan government to demilitarize, reduce military expenditure, and address historic and ongoing human rights violations.

Postscript:

As the final chapter of “Teardrop Diplomacy” draws to a close, the resonance of Asanga Abeyagoonasekera’s insights lingers, leaving readers with a profound understanding of Sri Lanka’s complex geopolitical landscape. The postscript to this review serves as a reflection on the enduring impact and significance of Abeyagoonasekera’s work.

In a world marked by the exodus of a million Sri Lankans, economic contractions, and political unrest, “Teardrop Diplomacy” emerges not just as a scholarly endeavor but as a clarion call for attention. Abeyagoonasekera’s forced departure from Sri Lanka, fueled by political tumult, exemplifies the very challenges he expounds upon in his book. His critique of the government’s response to the Easter Sunday bombings reveals a courage that transcends borders, echoing the spirit of those who, in April 2022, rallied against injustice.

Abeyagoonasekera’s intellectual pursuits during his self-imposed exile underscore the resilience of voices committed to a nuanced exploration of foreign policy issues. In a realm where public and academic discourse often falls short, his scholarship becomes a beacon, illuminating the less-trodden paths of international relations.

The strategic positioning of Sri Lanka in the contested waters of the Indian Ocean becomes a focal point in Abeyagoonasekera’s narrative. The geopolitical complexities woven into the fabric of the region find meticulous unraveling in his analysis. The global power play involving China, the US, India, Japan, and Australia takes center stage, mirroring the real-world struggles for influence that continue to unfold.

In ‘Teardrop Diplomacy,’ Abeyagoonasekera masterfully dissects how nations, wielding economic leverage, pursue geopolitical objectives. The Belt and Road Initiatives, China’s foray into Sri Lanka, and the subsequent implications for the region become a canvas where great power rivalry paints intricate trajectories. Abeyagoonasekera’s ability to situate these dynamics within the broader context of U.S.-China competition in the Indo-Pacific amplifies the urgency of understanding evolving geopolitical landscapes.

The testimonials from prominent voices in international relations affirm the book’s significance. It is not merely a Sri Lankan narrative but a valuable source for students and experts delving into South Asian security and economic relations. Abeyagoonasekera’s call for a credible democracy, a stable economy, and honest leadership resonates as a timeless prescription for nations navigating the turbulent waters of the Indian Ocean.

As we turn the final pages of ‘Teardrop Diplomacy,’ we are compelled to acknowledge the enduring impact of Abeyagoonasekera’s contribution to our understanding of global affairs. His book is not just an exploration; it is an imperative, urging us to grapple with the unintended consequences of decisions made on the geopolitical chessboard—a lesson etched into the very fabric of our shared history.

Reference

Author

Hasitha Kasun Hapuarachchi

[Hasitha Kasun Hapuarachchi is a Colombo-based independent researcher specializing in economics. He holds a Bachelor of Economics special degree with first-class honors from Gujarat University in Ahmedabad, India. With a passion for understanding economic systems, Hasitha conducts research projects that provide insights into real-world economic phenomena. He remains up-to-date with the latest advancements in the field, actively contributing to academic debates and discussions. Hasitha’s exceptional analytical skills and comprehensive knowledge make him a respected and influential figure in economics.]

Source – South – South Research Initiative

Link – https://www.ssrinitiative.org/8243-2/