In the aftermath of mass protests that led to the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh, India’s diplomatic efforts in South Asia continue unabated. Two high-level visits to key neighbors in the southern Indian Ocean reflect New Delhi’s ongoing commitment to regional stability and influence.
External Affairs Minister (EAM) S. Jaishankar made a significant visit to the Maldives, following the meetings held in New Delhi with Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu and Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer. This visit comes on the heels of the re-election of Narendra Modi as India’s Prime Minister, marking the first senior Indian delegation to the Maldives after the Muizzu administration introduced tensions in bilateral relations, raising concerns for regional security.
Simultaneously, National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval was in Colombo, Sri Lanka, following his participation in the NSA-level meeting of the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC). Doval’s visit underscored India’s focus on regional security, where he engaged with key presidential candidates ahead of Sri Lanka’s upcoming election on September 21.
EAM Jaishankar’s discussions in the Maldives emphasized the necessity for India’s involvement in the economic recovery of the crisis-hit island nation. India’s role as a regional power extends beyond its borders, much like its intervention in Sri Lanka’s economic recovery, where it provided essential supplies amidst a severe dollar shortage.
In Colombo, NSA Doval co-signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to establish the CSC Secretariat in the Sri Lankan capital. This formalized the existing ad hoc arrangements and anticipated potential changes in Sri Lanka’s leadership. Notably, the Maldives, which had previously abstained from the CSC meeting under the new Muizzu administration, signed the MoU this time, while Bangladesh and Seychelles remained observers.
The CSC, as highlighted by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), aims to enhance regional security by addressing transnational threats and challenges. Its focus areas include maritime safety, counter-terrorism, cyber security, and humanitarian assistance, reflecting the current mandate on non-traditional security cooperation. The scope for expanding these objectives is vast, particularly given the region’s instability, exacerbated by China’s strategic presence.
Jaishankar’s visit to the Maldives also centered on mitigating an impending economic crisis, compounded by a debt crisis and dollar crunch, despite the post-COVID recovery of the tourism sector. Concerns over market panic have emerged, particularly involving the Bank of Maldives, with potential repercussions on bilateral relations.
In contrast, NSA Doval’s engagements in Sri Lanka conveyed India’s neutral stance in the upcoming presidential elections, a message well-received in Colombo. However, the challenges of addressing India-Sri Lanka bilateral issues under the new government, particularly regarding Indian investments like the Adani Group’s projects, remain significant.
India’s unprecedented support for Sri Lanka, including Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s advocacy for an IMF bailout, underscores the deepening ties between the two nations. Yet, historical critics of India in Sri Lanka persist, reflecting the complexities of bilateral relations.
The evolving geopolitical landscape will test India’s strategic approach to its southern neighbors, with ongoing challenges in managing China’s influence and internal political dynamics in the Maldives and Sri Lanka. The outcome of these diplomatic efforts will shape the future of India’s influence in the region, potentially bridging divides with northern and northeastern neighbors like Bangladesh. However, maintaining a consistent and nuanced policy approach, coupled with economic support, will be crucial in ensuring long-term stability and cooperation in South Asia.
